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Fidel Castro's long reign in Cuba seems to be coming to an end. What happens next?

Castro came to power in Cuba in 1959, overthrowing the right-wing dictator Fulgencio Battista, to establish a Communist "people's democracy." His revolution against Battista's brutal regime was aided by the moral and financial support of many Americans, who saw Battista as a typical Latin American fascist and looked to Castro for a better, more humane government.

Remember, Cuba freed itself from Spanish colonialism with the help of the United States. Teddy Roosevelt led his Rough Riders to glory in Cuba. Americans died for Cuban freedom.

America also gained a global empire by taking the Philippine Islands and other colonial possessions from Spain. To our credit, we gave the Philippines independence in the 1940s — an independence that was delayed by the Japanese invasion of those islands in 1942.

Many Americans were delighted when Castro's revolutionaries ousted Battista's fascists. That delight began to fade, though, when Castro nationalized most of Cuba's industries, including companies and facilities that were owned by American corporations.

Castro also drove away much of the Cuban middle class. Soon after he came into power, whole families of Cubans left their homes and came to the U.S., mainly to the Miami region of Florida.

The Eisenhower Administration was not happy with Castro's expropriation of American corporate enterprises in Cuba. Castro openly declared himself to be a Communist and aligned Cuba with the Soviet Union in the long and bitter Cold War between East and West.

Washington enacted a trade embargo against Cuba, an embargo that still stands, a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

Of course, the newly installed Kennedy Administration didn't help things by backing the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion. That fiasco soured U.S.-Cuban relations completely. Castro allowed the Soviets to build missile bases on Cuba, which led to the Cuban Missile Crisis — as close to nuclear war as we have come. So far.

Meanwhile, waves of Cubans fled to the U.S., many in makeshift boats that could hardly make the short ocean passage to Florida. A community of Cuban exiles grew in the Miami area and began making an impact on American national politics.

American politicians swiftly realized that to win a national election, Florida's vote was crucial. And to win Florida, they had to make the Cuban exile community happy. Thus the trade embargo against Cuba is still in place, long after Russia and the U.S. buried the Cold War. No national politician dares to even suggest ending the embargo for fear that it would cost the Florida vote.

So here we stand: 80-year-old Fidel Castro may be on his last legs; the Cuban exile community dreams of returning to Cuba and taking a hand in shaping a new government in Havana; Castro's brother, Raul, has the unenviable task of keeping the current regime in control of the island nation.

Will Fidel actually relinquish the power he has wielded for some 47 years? Will the Cuban people accept Raul Castro as their "maximum leader," as they have accepted Fidel? Will a power struggle break out in Havana? dictatorships rarely transfer power peacefully; we may see bloodshed soon.

What will the Cuban exiles do? Despite their rhetoric about returning home, most of the exiles are second and third-generation Americans, born and raised in the U.S. Do they really expect to return to Cuba and resume the places in Cuban society that their grandparents once had? Would the Cuban people — and the Cuban army — welcome their return?

And what policy should the U.S. government follow? If Castro truly relinquishes power (or dies) there is an opportunity for American to at least attempt to close the breach that has separated our nation from our island neighbor.

President Bush might start the process of ending the trade embargo. He has nothing to lose: in two years he'll be retired. The embargo serves little purpose today, except to keep Cuba alienated from the U.S. The Cuban exile community in Miami might be infuriated by any steps toward what they see as acceptance of the Castro regime. But such a reconciliation must come, sooner or later.

Remember, Communist Cuba still serves as a rallying point for other Latin American nations such as Venezuela and Peru to struggle against what they see as "gringo imperialism." Venezuela is a major oil-producing nation, and a huge untapped oil field has recently been discovered in the waters between Cuba and the U.S.

The embargo is more of a symbol today than a practical policy. It serves little purpose except to keep Cuba impoverished and to satisfy the exile population in the Miami area. The U.S. gains nothing from the embargo — except the votes of the Cuban exiles, which can be crucial to winning the state of Florida.

On the theory that you catch more flies with sugar than with vinegar, I believe we should start to dismantle the embargo and begin to make closer ties with Cuba. The nation is a Communist dictatorship, true enough. But politics based on outdated emotional rhetoric is seldom successful. We trade with Communist China: why not Communist Cuba? Surely the Cuban exile population cannot expect a return to 1959. The people of Cuba will not willingly turn back the clock and lay out a welcome mat for them.

America's policy should be aimed at bringing Cuba closer to us, politically and economically. The Cuban people remember that our government supported Battista's corrupt dictatorship: Castro came to power despite Washington's official position.

Trade and tourism will bring wealth to Cuba, and begin healing the rift that has separated our two nations for far too long.

On the other hand, if and when American tourists and investors are allowed into Cuba, what will happen to the tourist industry in Southwest Florida?

As the old Chinese curse puts it: May you live in interesting times.

Naples resident Ben Bova is the author of more than 110 books, including "Titan," his latest novel. Dr. Bova's Web site address is www.benbova.com.